* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/28/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 38 46 53 57 60 62 65 66 60 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 38 46 53 57 60 62 65 66 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 37 40 44 49 52 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 15 16 21 12 17 9 15 10 16 14 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -2 -1 0 2 -2 0 2 6 0 2 11 SHEAR DIR 237 260 261 255 253 268 275 291 265 247 263 248 212 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.5 28.2 27.9 26.3 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 141 141 140 138 133 131 142 139 121 87 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 124 127 128 129 127 124 120 119 127 125 109 80 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 1 700-500 MB RH 48 53 54 54 55 53 57 54 55 64 62 48 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 13 15 13 18 20 21 21 20 22 23 18 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -3 8 15 16 7 5 -9 -31 -21 2 22 46 200 MB DIV 0 -8 1 23 29 48 11 33 32 74 43 91 68 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 2 16 5 17 22 20 32 61 27 LAND (KM) 632 622 613 590 574 589 646 802 1031 1355 1200 880 543 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.4 19.9 21.5 22.9 24.9 27.3 30.2 33.4 37.5 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 59.7 59.8 59.9 60.2 60.5 61.2 61.9 62.4 62.8 62.2 60.6 58.6 56.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 4 6 7 8 9 11 13 16 20 23 24 HEAT CONTENT 64 63 62 58 55 42 33 25 21 20 10 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 584 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 23. 25. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 9. 8. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 16. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 36. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/28/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/28/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/28/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)