* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/28/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 71 66 61 49 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 75 71 66 61 49 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 74 70 66 62 54 44 35 28 23 18 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 7 11 16 28 32 31 31 29 29 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 5 5 11 2 1 3 0 0 3 4 2 SHEAR DIR 229 217 225 175 208 245 243 246 254 277 282 266 249 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.7 24.9 24.1 23.3 22.5 21.8 21.3 21.2 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 126 122 118 110 101 93 84 77 71 68 69 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 39 44 47 48 45 43 40 39 35 30 27 25 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 22 22 19 19 18 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 54 51 44 51 48 29 12 10 2 1 -14 -12 -17 200 MB DIV 0 5 24 41 57 3 1 13 -12 -13 -12 -15 -9 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -1 0 5 6 5 5 2 3 1 0 -3 LAND (KM) 991 967 945 906 869 787 726 676 636 609 589 604 609 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.8 19.3 20.5 21.6 22.6 23.5 24.3 25.1 25.3 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.8 118.0 118.2 118.3 118.3 118.4 118.5 118.7 119.2 119.7 120.1 120.4 120.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -23. -30. -36. -41. -46. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -16. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -19. -31. -46. -57. -67. -77. -89. -99.-106. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/28/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/28/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##