* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/28/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 47 50 55 56 58 60 64 63 61 57 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 47 50 55 56 58 60 64 63 61 57 V (KT) LGE mod 40 44 46 48 49 50 49 49 50 52 56 57 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 19 22 21 18 20 13 17 16 16 18 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 0 4 2 2 4 2 2 -2 -1 7 SHEAR DIR 262 261 262 259 269 259 290 270 284 252 240 240 224 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.8 28.1 27.2 23.7 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 141 141 140 139 135 131 136 141 131 102 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 128 129 128 126 122 117 122 128 119 93 70 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 8 6 4 0 700-500 MB RH 52 53 54 55 53 56 54 57 59 67 53 39 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 13 14 14 16 19 18 19 19 21 20 18 20 850 MB ENV VOR 2 10 15 13 7 8 -3 -17 -28 2 -6 -6 -38 200 MB DIV -10 -3 15 29 50 30 -5 23 53 44 63 70 82 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 6 13 15 18 17 34 26 57 14 13 LAND (KM) 611 593 580 559 550 594 706 916 1168 1340 1000 629 111 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.9 19.4 20.1 20.7 22.2 23.9 26.2 28.6 31.8 35.6 40.4 45.7 LONG(DEG W) 59.9 60.1 60.3 60.7 61.1 61.8 62.4 62.8 62.8 61.8 59.9 57.1 53.7 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 7 7 8 8 10 12 14 18 24 28 29 HEAT CONTENT 65 62 57 54 48 37 32 21 25 20 11 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 6. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 10. 15. 16. 18. 20. 24. 23. 21. 17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/28/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/28/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/28/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)