* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/28/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 33 36 37 39 39 35 34 34 35 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 33 36 37 39 39 35 34 34 35 V (KT) LGE mod 35 35 34 33 33 32 32 34 35 34 32 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 22 19 16 13 3 17 19 34 35 40 37 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 7 5 8 3 4 3 5 1 -1 -9 SHEAR DIR 242 240 244 231 244 296 355 335 315 326 339 351 358 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 124 124 124 125 126 128 130 133 136 137 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 116 117 116 115 116 114 114 116 119 122 121 119 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 61 61 54 56 53 53 50 50 45 48 52 53 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 14 12 13 12 15 13 13 14 11 13 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -5 -4 -7 -14 -15 -32 -45 -58 -61 -63 -65 -52 200 MB DIV 16 17 20 24 -1 0 -9 -14 17 -1 -1 20 -9 700-850 TADV 3 6 7 8 11 14 17 23 17 12 3 -7 -24 LAND (KM) 1964 1943 1927 1932 1937 1982 2031 2074 2060 1938 1762 1621 1509 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.9 18.5 19.9 21.3 22.3 23.0 23.6 24.2 24.7 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 38.2 39.0 39.8 40.6 41.3 42.5 44.0 45.2 46.4 47.9 49.9 51.6 53.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 10 9 10 9 7 7 8 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 12 13 14 15 23 22 22 25 31 31 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -3. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -2. 1. 2. 4. 4. 0. -1. -1. 0. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/28/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/28/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/28/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)