* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/28/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 70 65 59 53 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 70 65 59 53 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 69 64 60 55 45 36 28 22 18 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 11 13 22 28 30 36 37 35 33 41 49 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 4 5 10 4 1 4 -3 0 1 2 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 224 248 207 217 241 242 256 254 270 270 271 260 256 SST (C) 26.6 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.0 23.0 22.2 21.6 21.3 21.2 21.2 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 123 119 114 109 101 90 81 75 71 69 70 68 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 44 42 47 42 40 36 33 30 25 25 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 22 21 20 19 17 13 13 11 10 7 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 60 45 54 55 26 28 4 14 -2 0 -11 -20 -23 200 MB DIV -4 1 37 76 36 -4 15 0 -12 -7 -8 -20 -2 700-850 TADV -3 1 3 4 8 6 2 6 3 1 1 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 962 933 907 864 826 767 709 662 635 638 648 689 740 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.8 20.4 21.5 22.8 23.7 24.5 25.0 25.3 25.2 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 118.2 118.4 118.6 118.7 118.8 118.9 119.4 119.8 120.2 120.6 120.9 121.3 121.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -18. -26. -33. -39. -43. -47. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. -34. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -10. -11. -14. -15. -19. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -16. -22. -36. -52. -63. -76. -85. -98.-109.-117. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/28/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/28/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##