* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/28/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 52 55 58 62 67 70 70 72 68 58 46 V (KT) LAND 45 49 52 55 58 62 67 70 70 72 68 58 46 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 54 56 57 58 59 61 64 68 67 58 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 22 23 19 16 13 5 9 7 17 22 27 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 0 0 0 2 1 8 8 11 5 7 SHEAR DIR 253 247 256 270 263 248 244 226 225 214 197 205 210 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.5 28.1 27.8 25.7 18.6 11.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 140 140 136 131 131 140 138 116 80 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 128 127 128 122 117 117 127 127 105 75 68 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 55 54 53 56 54 56 56 61 59 47 39 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 17 18 20 20 23 24 21 23 24 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR 6 7 4 3 -1 -4 -6 -32 -18 10 8 -5 -22 200 MB DIV 16 29 22 29 51 26 42 61 101 68 74 34 43 700-850 TADV 6 2 2 10 21 15 22 25 24 44 45 -9 -23 LAND (KM) 563 551 550 553 570 666 804 1028 1323 1137 780 435 45 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.0 21.7 23.4 25.1 27.3 30.0 33.8 38.4 42.9 47.0 LONG(DEG W) 60.4 60.7 60.9 61.3 61.6 62.3 62.8 62.9 62.6 61.3 58.8 55.8 52.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 12 16 22 25 24 23 HEAT CONTENT 62 58 52 44 39 34 22 21 19 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 4. 6. 6. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 17. 22. 25. 25. 27. 23. 13. 1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/28/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/28/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/28/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)