* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/29/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 54 56 58 62 66 69 72 68 63 49 33 V (KT) LAND 50 53 54 56 58 62 66 69 72 68 63 50 33 V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 56 57 58 59 60 62 66 68 61 49 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 25 18 16 10 10 12 13 15 22 44 59 92 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 1 0 0 1 3 0 6 4 7 5 -22 SHEAR DIR 257 254 273 287 260 270 243 268 211 205 210 223 261 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.5 27.9 28.0 26.5 19.6 10.3 9.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 140 140 137 131 138 141 124 84 72 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 127 127 127 124 119 126 129 114 79 71 71 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.8 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 56 55 55 57 56 59 61 58 49 41 40 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 20 21 21 23 19 20 15 11 850 MB ENV VOR 12 6 3 -3 0 -8 -17 -28 18 23 35 -52 -51 200 MB DIV 27 20 28 25 28 21 29 66 76 74 65 51 -1 700-850 TADV 5 3 8 16 10 18 24 32 46 33 39 3 22 LAND (KM) 556 537 531 543 571 681 874 1203 1266 854 449 67 716 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.3 22.0 23.8 25.9 28.9 32.5 37.1 42.3 48.3 54.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.5 60.9 61.2 61.6 61.9 62.7 63.1 62.7 61.7 59.9 57.3 52.2 45.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 9 10 12 17 21 26 31 37 37 HEAT CONTENT 61 57 49 42 38 32 20 24 18 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 1. -4. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 1. 2. -3. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 18. 13. -1. -17. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/29/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 49.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/29/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/29/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)