* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/29/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 43 45 47 48 49 46 40 42 40 41 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 43 45 47 48 49 46 40 42 40 41 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 43 43 45 46 45 41 37 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 16 10 8 12 23 39 37 40 33 37 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 1 3 5 6 -2 2 7 5 2 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 242 227 236 234 203 346 338 333 337 358 359 1 347 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 125 127 127 130 132 134 137 138 138 137 135 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 118 119 118 120 120 120 122 124 123 120 118 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 49 50 46 47 44 48 51 54 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 10 12 13 13 12 14 13 11 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -2 -6 -16 -12 -22 -38 -58 -64 -78 -71 -73 -50 200 MB DIV 23 1 1 8 -1 -10 -2 -4 30 -18 -2 9 1 700-850 TADV 7 6 10 13 16 14 16 17 18 9 -16 -20 -14 LAND (KM) 1877 1873 1865 1885 1912 1965 1932 1833 1706 1562 1384 1239 1100 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.1 19.9 21.3 22.2 23.0 23.7 24.4 25.0 25.0 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 40.4 41.3 42.1 42.9 43.7 45.4 47.3 48.8 50.3 52.1 54.4 56.1 57.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 18 21 24 25 25 31 33 32 32 27 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. -1. -6. -11. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. -2. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 6. 0. 2. 0. 1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/29/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/29/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/29/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)