* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/29/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 54 46 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 60 54 46 39 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 60 56 51 46 37 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 27 28 28 32 32 32 35 39 36 39 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 9 10 6 4 0 -2 0 1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 236 238 249 243 243 257 248 265 277 281 268 255 251 SST (C) 25.3 24.9 24.4 24.0 23.6 23.0 22.0 21.4 21.3 21.7 22.2 22.3 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 110 105 101 97 90 80 74 72 77 82 83 84 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 3 3 3 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 40 40 39 39 37 34 36 28 25 24 22 20 16 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 19 19 18 17 14 13 12 10 8 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 55 52 42 38 37 23 26 -5 1 -5 -18 -19 -25 200 MB DIV 29 45 44 11 5 -5 -8 -13 -13 -21 -17 5 -7 700-850 TADV 3 4 3 7 4 3 3 2 2 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 937 917 902 894 869 820 779 829 942 1057 1166 1280 1388 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.9 20.4 21.0 21.6 22.6 23.8 24.4 24.5 24.0 23.1 22.5 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.2 119.5 119.7 120.0 120.3 120.8 121.4 122.4 123.7 124.7 125.4 126.3 127.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -19. -26. -33. -36. -38. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -26. -30. -33. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -12. -15. -17. -21. -22. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -19. -26. -42. -53. -65. -76. -86. -97.-105.-112. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/29/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/29/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##