* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/29/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 51 51 53 55 56 59 61 61 55 43 25 V (KT) LAND 50 50 51 51 53 55 56 59 61 61 55 42 24 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 52 52 52 52 52 52 55 56 52 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 17 17 16 18 11 18 12 15 19 29 59 81 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 1 0 1 7 1 4 1 1 7 3 -16 SHEAR DIR 249 269 276 265 266 267 265 271 242 211 230 248 268 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.6 28.2 27.6 24.0 13.0 8.4 8.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 140 140 138 134 133 142 136 104 74 70 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 127 127 126 121 121 129 125 97 71 69 68 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.8 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 55 56 57 55 54 59 66 57 46 42 39 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 19 19 20 22 21 22 20 20 18 14 9 850 MB ENV VOR 15 12 8 12 4 0 -31 -6 3 0 -56 -90 -37 200 MB DIV 26 36 31 33 18 56 47 64 52 99 63 76 3 700-850 TADV 6 8 17 12 22 35 40 45 43 -2 57 75 42 LAND (KM) 527 528 544 571 612 775 1059 1375 1053 615 56 367 859 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.5 21.2 22.0 22.8 24.9 27.6 30.7 34.6 39.9 46.3 51.8 56.1 LONG(DEG W) 60.9 61.2 61.5 61.9 62.3 63.0 62.9 62.3 61.3 59.0 55.4 50.1 43.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 10 12 15 18 24 31 34 31 28 HEAT CONTENT 58 50 42 38 37 22 22 18 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 5. -7. -25. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/29/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/29/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/29/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)