* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/29/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 48 40 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 48 40 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 49 43 38 34 26 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 29 26 29 33 32 32 31 37 41 44 49 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 10 10 5 0 -2 0 2 2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 249 253 251 246 245 246 249 276 278 276 263 257 253 SST (C) 24.9 24.4 24.0 23.7 23.3 22.7 22.0 21.7 21.8 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 110 105 101 98 94 87 79 76 77 78 79 79 78 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 37 40 42 40 36 33 27 24 25 21 17 14 18 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 17 16 16 14 13 10 8 6 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 51 41 38 38 30 30 1 -9 -2 -16 -23 -30 -42 200 MB DIV 19 36 9 4 5 -4 -21 -14 -22 -18 -8 -12 -19 700-850 TADV 7 7 4 6 5 1 2 0 1 1 -3 -2 -12 LAND (KM) 948 933 923 903 876 857 867 924 1018 1091 1161 1221 1270 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.3 20.8 21.4 22.0 22.9 23.6 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.2 23.1 23.2 LONG(DEG W) 119.7 120.0 120.2 120.6 120.9 121.6 122.3 123.1 124.1 124.8 125.4 126.0 126.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -15. -21. -26. -28. -29. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -27. -33. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -16. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -23. -31. -45. -55. -67. -76. -86. -96.-104.-109. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/29/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/29/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##