* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/29/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 64 66 67 69 68 71 70 64 51 36 23 V (KT) LAND 60 63 64 66 67 69 68 71 70 64 48 33 20 V (KT) LGE mod 60 63 65 66 65 64 64 66 68 61 47 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 18 18 24 15 15 14 14 21 28 40 62 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 0 6 1 1 0 0 12 15 3 0 SHEAR DIR 272 270 257 268 277 260 281 243 221 220 220 232 249 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.4 28.0 27.8 25.8 17.0 9.5 9.8 8.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 141 138 136 130 139 138 117 78 70 68 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 128 125 123 119 127 127 107 75 69 67 66 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.2 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 4 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 59 60 59 54 56 57 63 57 50 39 41 41 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 18 20 20 22 20 19 18 19 15 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 7 2 7 -2 -5 -21 -20 24 38 21 -48 -53 -93 200 MB DIV 32 31 23 19 45 25 69 49 73 112 96 85 72 700-850 TADV 11 19 12 24 24 29 39 36 36 19 81 89 118 LAND (KM) 494 510 544 603 671 920 1265 1158 742 345 36 552 990 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.3 22.1 23.0 23.9 26.4 29.6 33.4 38.1 43.5 49.5 53.2 54.9 LONG(DEG W) 61.6 62.0 62.4 62.8 63.1 63.3 63.2 62.2 60.3 57.3 53.1 47.6 41.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 10 11 14 18 22 27 31 29 23 21 HEAT CONTENT 49 43 41 42 33 18 20 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. -4. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 11. 10. 4. -9. -24. -37. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/29/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/29/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/29/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 3( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)