* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/29/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 41 43 45 46 47 45 44 44 43 47 47 V (KT) LAND 40 40 41 43 45 46 47 45 44 44 43 47 47 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 41 41 42 44 45 43 40 37 35 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 8 8 15 24 31 31 33 27 19 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 6 9 3 0 6 1 2 3 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 254 267 314 333 348 346 326 349 354 12 2 359 329 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 128 129 131 134 137 138 138 138 136 136 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 118 119 120 121 123 124 124 123 122 121 119 117 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 10 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 54 51 48 48 44 45 42 48 53 53 53 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 9 10 8 10 10 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -14 -15 -23 -24 -46 -73 -87 -98 -91 -89 -63 -46 200 MB DIV 17 7 -4 -10 -6 -4 -6 5 -3 11 -5 5 -19 700-850 TADV 9 11 13 15 23 14 13 4 2 -5 -6 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1850 1841 1839 1859 1887 1879 1738 1567 1428 1274 1100 969 879 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.3 20.0 20.7 21.9 22.8 23.6 24.3 24.6 24.5 24.5 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.2 43.1 44.0 44.9 45.8 47.7 49.7 51.7 53.5 55.4 57.4 59.1 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 9 9 9 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 23 26 27 27 27 34 34 33 30 26 30 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. 0. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 7. 7. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/29/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/29/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/29/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)