* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/29/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 31 25 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 29 28 33 32 35 30 30 35 38 37 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 8 4 4 -2 2 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 258 254 249 246 252 243 260 280 278 266 264 258 255 SST (C) 24.4 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.0 22.4 22.0 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.6 22.6 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 105 102 98 95 90 83 79 79 81 84 85 85 85 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 41 41 41 40 36 30 24 24 22 17 14 13 16 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 17 16 14 13 11 9 6 4 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 46 46 37 24 27 -7 -9 -20 -35 -33 -48 -51 200 MB DIV 14 0 12 1 3 -23 -25 -14 -16 -10 0 -5 -16 700-850 TADV 8 7 4 5 1 1 0 0 1 -2 0 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 964 958 937 907 880 891 939 999 1072 1177 1282 1376 1467 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.7 21.2 21.8 22.4 23.1 23.4 23.4 23.2 22.6 22.0 21.6 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 120.2 120.5 120.8 121.1 121.4 122.2 123.0 123.7 124.4 125.2 126.0 126.8 127.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 4 4 3 4 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 797 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -15. -15. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -20. -26. -31. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -9. -7. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -23. -30. -41. -54. -65. -76. -85. -93. -99. -99. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/29/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/29/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##