* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/29/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 43 44 45 47 46 45 45 43 45 47 46 V (KT) LAND 40 41 43 44 45 47 46 45 45 43 45 47 46 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 45 44 42 38 36 36 37 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 12 17 19 29 35 33 27 27 24 26 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 2 2 3 5 -3 1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 276 343 358 337 336 339 350 359 359 359 347 340 346 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 129 131 133 136 138 137 137 138 136 134 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 120 120 122 123 123 121 121 122 120 118 115 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -55.2 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 51 50 45 44 42 44 45 47 50 52 50 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 11 11 10 13 11 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -12 -20 -26 -38 -56 -72 -88 -84 -72 -60 -54 -44 200 MB DIV 13 -4 -19 -7 -24 0 5 -4 10 0 19 -19 5 700-850 TADV 10 10 14 23 18 14 1 -2 -6 -13 -13 -14 -7 LAND (KM) 1931 1948 1973 1993 1985 1827 1648 1506 1378 1244 1104 987 882 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.5 21.2 21.9 22.5 23.5 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 43.2 44.1 45.0 46.0 46.9 49.0 51.1 52.8 54.4 56.2 58.1 59.8 61.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 25 26 25 24 30 33 32 32 26 27 29 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. 5. 7. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/29/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/29/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/29/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)