* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/29/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 39 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 39 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 35 31 28 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 31 32 33 34 37 34 37 40 48 50 28 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 5 4 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 6 -2 SHEAR DIR 256 250 248 251 246 246 262 264 265 264 258 267 278 SST (C) 23.7 23.4 23.1 22.8 22.4 21.9 21.7 21.8 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 99 95 91 88 84 78 76 77 80 79 78 77 75 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.7 -52.1 -52.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 39 37 38 35 36 26 24 22 21 17 13 15 17 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 10 8 7 5 4 2 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 44 34 23 27 6 -8 -14 -30 -37 -51 -62 -72 200 MB DIV 4 1 -4 6 -1 -28 -17 -21 -16 -7 -21 -37 -31 700-850 TADV 4 2 4 0 4 1 0 0 1 -1 1 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 907 879 851 845 844 869 924 1009 1106 1196 1279 1382 1410 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.7 23.8 23.7 23.4 23.4 23.4 23.6 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 120.5 120.8 121.0 121.4 121.7 122.4 123.1 124.0 124.9 125.9 126.8 128.0 128.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -22. -22. -23. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -17. -24. -32. -39. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -14. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. -13. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -26. -39. -51. -63. -74. -83. -93. -99.-101. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/29/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/29/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##