* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/30/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 75 75 78 80 84 79 64 47 31 17 V (KT) LAND 70 72 74 75 75 78 80 84 79 63 46 30 15 V (KT) LGE mod 70 73 75 75 74 71 73 76 67 52 44 40 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 13 13 8 11 6 14 30 50 67 54 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 8 6 8 4 5 8 6 10 -3 0 8 SHEAR DIR 274 261 268 239 244 246 223 225 228 242 262 277 306 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.8 28.1 26.5 16.4 9.3 11.4 11.4 13.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 139 135 131 136 142 125 78 71 71 71 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 127 123 119 124 132 118 75 69 69 69 70 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.7 -51.7 -51.6 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 54 55 53 57 61 62 52 46 40 45 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 23 21 21 24 23 27 27 25 19 13 8 850 MB ENV VOR 16 9 5 -6 -11 -16 14 11 -28 -51 -1 15 -24 200 MB DIV 28 20 28 60 62 82 84 89 91 48 -14 -31 -42 700-850 TADV 22 16 32 30 21 35 19 67 59 50 12 5 15 LAND (KM) 510 566 633 742 860 1147 1306 822 323 129 800 1408 1000 LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.4 23.3 24.6 25.8 28.4 32.0 37.2 43.8 49.1 52.4 53.1 51.8 LONG(DEG W) 62.1 62.4 62.7 63.0 63.2 62.8 62.1 60.4 57.2 51.4 43.2 34.2 24.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 13 12 16 23 31 34 32 28 28 30 HEAT CONTENT 43 39 38 25 20 24 20 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 1. 5. 5. 2. -3. -9. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 8. 10. 14. 9. -6. -23. -39. -53. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/30/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/30/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/30/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 5( 9) 5( 13) 6( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)