* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/30/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 46 48 50 51 46 46 46 50 53 55 V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 46 48 50 51 46 46 46 50 53 55 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 45 46 45 42 38 36 37 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 9 15 17 39 35 36 27 28 22 26 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 6 6 5 0 4 2 1 -3 -2 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 360 360 344 334 341 337 345 353 357 351 334 339 335 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 129 132 133 135 137 138 138 138 136 133 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 118 118 120 120 120 122 122 123 123 121 117 116 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 49 45 44 43 42 43 44 50 53 51 49 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 13 11 11 13 14 12 13 14 17 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -19 -24 -41 -41 -59 -69 -76 -68 -56 -36 -35 -18 200 MB DIV -2 -13 -4 -20 1 12 3 -25 19 -5 -1 -13 1 700-850 TADV 11 7 18 20 17 8 14 -1 -6 -13 -5 -9 -2 LAND (KM) 2003 2036 2074 2074 2015 1862 1723 1558 1364 1181 1017 884 764 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.5 24.3 24.9 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.1 24.9 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 43.6 44.4 45.2 46.2 47.1 48.9 50.6 52.5 54.7 56.9 59.1 60.9 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 10 9 8 9 10 10 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 22 22 23 27 29 31 32 25 29 30 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 6. 6. 6. 10. 13. 15. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/30/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/30/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/30/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)