* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/30/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 38 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 35 31 27 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 31 33 35 33 37 36 34 38 46 51 45 24 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 3 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -6 SHEAR DIR 254 245 248 239 236 250 253 261 268 258 255 275 278 SST (C) 23.5 23.2 22.8 22.6 22.3 22.1 22.0 22.2 22.2 22.1 22.0 21.7 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 96 92 88 85 82 79 79 81 81 80 79 76 73 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 38 36 35 33 29 24 20 19 18 15 13 15 16 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 12 11 9 7 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 36 30 31 19 -7 -18 -23 -32 -38 -63 -64 -71 200 MB DIV -1 -9 5 4 -21 -24 -14 -6 -3 11 -14 -23 -41 700-850 TADV 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 897 867 842 846 853 881 947 1028 1113 1179 1256 1346 1337 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.0 23.3 23.5 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.8 24.5 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.0 121.2 121.6 121.9 122.4 123.1 123.9 124.8 125.6 126.5 127.7 127.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -12. -15. -19. -22. -22. -23. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -18. -26. -35. -40. -42. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -15. -15. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -7. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -20. -27. -42. -56. -69. -80. -89. -97.-100.-100. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/30/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 9.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/30/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##