* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/30/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 90 91 90 94 97 90 76 55 32 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 88 90 91 90 94 97 90 76 53 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 90 91 89 87 84 85 79 59 46 39 34 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 7 11 12 3 11 26 42 61 74 79 83 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 10 4 3 3 6 12 8 13 0 9 6 SHEAR DIR 259 275 244 243 242 181 219 190 218 242 278 297 301 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.5 27.4 28.1 27.4 22.8 13.5 9.5 10.7 11.6 12.9 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 136 132 131 142 134 97 73 71 72 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 126 124 121 120 132 124 90 71 70 70 69 68 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.8 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 9 8 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 56 57 61 56 53 53 44 46 48 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 25 24 25 23 26 29 29 27 21 13 6 2 850 MB ENV VOR 13 6 2 0 -9 8 25 26 -32 -36 -4 37 -23 200 MB DIV 20 35 72 68 63 101 102 89 79 33 -20 -39 -43 700-850 TADV 17 30 25 9 19 31 63 13 48 31 33 14 35 LAND (KM) 529 610 700 833 973 1355 996 538 115 351 1169 1169 654 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.5 26.9 30.3 35.0 40.4 45.9 50.2 53.0 55.5 56.3 LONG(DEG W) 62.5 62.7 62.9 63.1 63.3 62.6 61.8 59.9 56.3 48.8 37.8 28.0 19.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 12 14 15 21 26 29 31 35 34 27 24 HEAT CONTENT 43 40 30 21 18 19 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -22. -29. -34. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 5. 5. 3. -2. -10. -16. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 5. 10. 12. 6. -9. -30. -53. -72. -88. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/30/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/30/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/30/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 12( 21) 12( 30) 16( 41) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 24( 25) 1( 26) 4( 28) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)