* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/30/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 45 47 50 49 47 49 50 53 55 59 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 45 47 50 49 47 49 50 53 55 59 V (KT) LGE mod 40 41 42 43 44 44 42 39 37 36 38 41 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 15 18 25 35 33 32 25 24 23 23 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 6 6 3 2 1 -2 -3 -3 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 354 338 324 330 336 346 347 353 340 331 336 342 311 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 131 133 134 136 137 138 137 137 135 134 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 118 119 121 120 120 122 123 121 120 118 118 116 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 700-500 MB RH 47 46 43 42 45 42 47 49 52 45 48 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 12 11 13 15 15 14 16 17 19 19 21 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -21 -32 -36 -50 -63 -76 -79 -63 -54 -42 -17 14 200 MB DIV -13 0 -3 -10 -15 21 2 9 5 30 -9 7 -15 700-850 TADV 8 16 17 18 18 4 4 -8 -2 -3 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 2026 2052 2063 2000 1914 1770 1640 1474 1313 1171 1053 936 818 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.3 23.8 24.4 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 44.5 45.4 46.2 47.2 48.2 49.9 51.5 53.5 55.6 57.4 58.7 60.2 61.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 8 8 10 9 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 23 22 23 25 30 30 31 28 27 29 31 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -2. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 9. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15. 19. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/30/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/30/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/30/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)