* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/30/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 29 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 35 31 27 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 34 33 33 35 36 34 37 41 46 50 46 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 0 0 1 3 0 -2 -1 -4 -5 -6 -7 SHEAR DIR 251 256 243 240 244 254 255 259 259 249 242 257 244 SST (C) 23.2 22.9 22.6 22.4 22.1 22.0 22.2 22.2 22.3 22.2 22.0 21.7 21.3 POT. INT. (KT) 92 89 85 83 79 79 80 79 80 79 78 76 72 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.2 -54.6 -55.1 -55.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 36 35 35 32 27 25 22 20 17 16 20 20 20 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 8 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 23 22 16 9 -9 -16 -34 -36 -50 -51 -65 -83 200 MB DIV -25 0 1 -26 -26 -2 -19 -7 0 -5 -10 -20 -50 700-850 TADV 1 0 3 1 1 0 1 4 5 3 -4 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 874 861 850 864 879 930 1002 1034 1057 1063 1070 1094 1027 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.2 23.4 23.4 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.2 23.4 24.0 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.4 121.6 122.0 122.3 122.9 123.6 123.9 124.1 124.3 124.5 125.1 124.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -13. -16. -19. -19. -19. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -10. -17. -26. -35. -41. -43. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 20. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -17. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -23. -36. -51. -65. -76. -85. -93. -97. -97. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/30/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/30/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##