* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/30/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 98 96 94 96 94 85 69 48 32 22 20 V (KT) LAND 95 98 98 96 94 96 94 85 69 48 32 22 20 V (KT) LGE mod 95 99 98 94 91 88 87 74 57 47 42 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 8 14 14 12 5 13 20 40 58 38 37 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 6 6 4 5 5 13 9 8 7 8 13 SHEAR DIR 262 234 229 241 276 212 229 209 229 259 267 264 257 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.5 27.7 28.1 26.4 19.9 12.8 12.8 12.3 13.1 13.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 133 132 135 142 123 84 73 75 75 73 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 122 120 123 132 112 78 71 73 73 71 70 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.1 -52.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 57 55 56 60 66 60 55 50 40 43 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 24 24 24 26 26 25 23 19 14 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 6 1 -7 -22 -16 16 18 -17 -26 -16 47 57 74 200 MB DIV 34 66 48 53 86 70 108 107 43 -1 1 9 16 700-850 TADV 34 27 25 39 43 23 52 52 35 39 -25 -35 -67 LAND (KM) 597 714 840 988 1139 1311 805 416 63 624 1362 568 119 LAT (DEG N) 22.9 24.2 25.5 27.0 28.4 32.0 37.2 42.0 46.2 49.8 52.9 55.3 56.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.7 62.8 62.9 63.0 63.1 62.0 60.8 58.5 54.1 44.6 30.5 18.5 8.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 14 15 16 23 26 26 31 42 42 32 28 HEAT CONTENT 40 28 21 20 24 21 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 7 CX,CY: -1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -23. -33. -41. -47. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 1. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -15. -19. -22. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 1. -1. 1. -1. -10. -26. -47. -63. -73. -75. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/30/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/30/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/30/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 21( 34) 16( 45) 19( 55) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 5( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)