* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/30/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 41 42 42 36 34 35 36 34 36 39 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 41 42 42 36 34 35 36 34 36 39 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 38 34 30 27 26 26 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 26 32 43 38 36 33 29 27 30 27 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 4 6 2 6 6 0 7 0 0 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 325 311 316 325 326 339 348 5 351 346 332 331 327 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 134 135 136 137 138 137 137 135 133 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 117 118 120 120 120 121 122 121 120 118 118 117 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.4 -54.8 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 44 42 44 46 44 48 48 51 51 47 41 48 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 15 11 13 15 17 14 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -38 -43 -57 -68 -76 -94 -84 -76 -57 -54 -25 -23 200 MB DIV 8 -3 -10 2 11 12 -2 0 21 16 -16 -5 -7 700-850 TADV 19 23 21 19 11 15 5 -9 -11 -13 -12 -8 0 LAND (KM) 2118 2131 2082 2005 1930 1765 1622 1450 1290 1141 1047 911 778 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.8 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.3 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.3 25.0 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 44.9 45.7 46.5 47.4 48.3 50.2 51.9 53.9 55.8 57.6 58.9 60.6 62.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 21 22 23 22 24 28 29 31 27 27 29 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -13. -17. -21. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 0. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. -4. -6. -5. -4. -6. -4. -1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/30/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/30/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/30/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)