* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 09/30/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 100 100 99 100 94 81 64 45 33 24 23 V (KT) LAND 100 102 100 100 99 100 94 81 64 45 33 24 23 V (KT) LGE mod 100 101 99 96 94 91 84 65 52 45 42 42 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 16 10 9 14 17 26 47 45 36 32 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 4 3 2 3 8 11 12 1 3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 220 226 234 258 209 229 215 235 248 269 247 234 247 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.1 27.6 23.8 15.3 10.2 13.2 12.5 13.0 13.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 132 132 138 141 136 102 75 71 75 74 72 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 122 122 126 129 127 94 71 70 73 72 70 69 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.8 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 60 64 61 57 51 43 43 51 67 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 27 27 26 25 29 28 27 25 20 16 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 -24 -18 -3 4 -2 -45 -46 30 26 0 44 200 MB DIV 54 62 46 93 107 84 103 63 47 7 11 51 43 700-850 TADV 29 23 34 40 23 23 11 31 44 -7 -12 53 -2 LAND (KM) 700 851 1007 1191 1359 1063 602 258 343 1091 1012 341 1 LAT (DEG N) 24.1 25.6 27.1 28.8 30.5 34.5 40.0 44.5 47.8 50.8 53.6 55.8 56.4 LONG(DEG W) 62.9 62.9 62.9 62.8 62.6 61.3 59.1 54.8 48.2 38.2 25.4 14.2 5.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 17 19 25 28 28 32 39 38 29 24 HEAT CONTENT 29 21 20 26 16 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -17. -30. -41. -49. -55. -58. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -1. -6. -10. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 0. 0. -1. 0. -6. -19. -36. -55. -67. -76. -77. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 09/30/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 09/30/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 09/30/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 22( 39) 21( 52) 22( 63) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 18 1( 19) 4( 22) 0( 22) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)