* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 09/30/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 47 44 40 38 37 37 36 37 35 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 47 44 40 38 37 37 36 37 35 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 47 47 46 43 38 34 31 30 30 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 25 35 43 37 41 40 36 28 28 31 25 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 1 3 3 0 0 3 2 3 1 -7 SHEAR DIR 297 312 323 329 336 356 359 4 358 342 340 327 329 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 134 135 136 137 137 138 138 137 133 129 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 120 120 120 120 120 122 124 122 117 111 110 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 11 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 41 43 44 42 41 45 47 49 44 46 47 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 13 12 13 14 15 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -34 -53 -60 -72 -91 -93 -83 -80 -67 -59 -45 -13 200 MB DIV -8 -7 -1 -8 7 -6 4 -4 14 10 4 -25 5 700-850 TADV 19 21 19 13 13 11 -6 -7 -10 -10 -3 0 2 LAND (KM) 2123 2059 1982 1911 1842 1709 1575 1413 1212 1030 878 860 944 LAT (DEG N) 23.2 23.7 24.1 24.5 24.8 25.4 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.0 24.9 25.4 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 45.8 46.7 47.6 48.5 49.3 51.0 52.6 54.4 56.6 58.8 61.0 62.2 62.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 9 10 10 8 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 23 22 24 27 28 29 32 26 28 31 25 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 11 CX,CY: -5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -12. -17. -21. -23. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 2. -1. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/30/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/30/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 09/30/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)