* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092011 09/30/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 25 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 35 34 32 32 31 37 41 47 53 43 16 18 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 6 1 -2 -2 -6 -1 3 -4 N/A SHEAR DIR 248 251 254 266 266 255 257 258 250 251 300 265 N/A SST (C) 22.2 22.0 21.8 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.6 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.0 20.8 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 78 76 76 75 73 73 73 72 71 68 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -55.1 -55.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 33 30 26 24 24 23 21 18 19 25 27 26 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 6 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 10 -2 -8 -11 -16 -28 -25 -38 -47 -76 -87 N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -38 -40 -17 -5 -12 -15 2 -13 -25 -41 -70 N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 3 2 2 3 6 1 -1 -12 -7 -8 N/A LAND (KM) 832 843 854 873 892 930 957 983 997 1052 1016 926 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 23.7 23.8 23.9 23.9 24.0 24.0 24.2 24.5 25.0 25.8 25.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.1 122.3 122.6 122.8 123.3 123.6 124.0 124.3 125.1 125.0 124.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. -15. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -15. -26. -36. -38. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 18. 21. 22. 23. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -26. -38. -50. -62. -69. -73. -76. -80. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP092011 HILARY 09/30/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092011 HILARY 09/30/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##