* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 10/01/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 102 102 102 100 89 72 50 31 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 104 102 102 102 100 89 72 50 31 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 104 100 98 96 92 78 59 48 41 38 37 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 11 9 7 10 11 19 33 60 43 43 53 75 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 9 6 5 1 8 14 11 3 7 16 21 10 SHEAR DIR 218 233 255 240 214 234 222 249 267 269 266 271 300 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.1 26.7 20.4 12.0 14.2 11.5 11.9 12.9 13.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 136 141 142 126 87 73 74 70 69 68 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 119 125 130 131 116 81 71 72 68 66 65 65 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.0 -52.4 -51.5 -50.5 -49.7 -50.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 9 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 51 56 61 63 63 55 51 38 37 44 41 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 27 28 28 29 30 27 22 17 13 16 23 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -30 -19 -3 10 21 -40 -63 2 77 138 141 19 200 MB DIV 50 37 79 99 70 112 96 48 -6 -14 -12 10 -35 700-850 TADV 25 33 27 26 21 35 46 34 20 -7 -60 -68 -8 LAND (KM) 847 994 1144 1356 1282 833 457 148 800 1415 1112 712 413 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 27.0 28.4 30.3 32.2 36.8 41.9 46.4 50.2 53.1 54.6 54.8 53.8 LONG(DEG W) 63.0 63.0 62.9 62.6 62.2 61.1 57.8 51.2 42.2 34.1 27.1 20.9 16.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 17 19 21 26 30 34 32 25 20 16 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 26 17 19 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 14 CX,CY: 0/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -3. -5. -11. -23. -37. -48. -58. -63. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. 1. 2. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -15. -12. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -16. -33. -55. -74. -88. -92. -92. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 24( 45) 24( 58) 22( 67) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)