* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/01/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 44 40 40 37 37 37 38 39 40 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 44 40 40 37 37 37 38 39 40 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 41 38 34 31 29 30 31 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 34 44 39 36 44 33 31 27 29 25 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 3 5 3 3 0 0 -1 -2 -9 -1 SHEAR DIR 303 321 321 325 339 349 350 358 331 328 344 308 274 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 134 135 136 136 137 138 138 135 132 133 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 118 119 120 121 120 121 122 122 118 113 114 118 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.9 -54.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 700-500 MB RH 44 46 44 41 43 45 46 45 43 42 49 49 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 13 14 14 13 15 15 16 16 17 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -48 -55 -67 -73 -87 -81 -81 -56 -60 -34 -13 5 200 MB DIV -8 8 1 4 6 -14 8 8 21 -13 0 21 27 700-850 TADV 25 23 15 18 15 -1 -10 -15 -13 -3 0 3 -1 LAND (KM) 2122 2044 1969 1902 1838 1693 1548 1384 1201 1084 1064 1149 1308 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.2 24.6 25.0 25.4 26.0 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.2 26.9 27.9 29.1 LONG(DEG W) 46.1 47.0 47.9 48.8 49.6 51.5 53.3 55.2 57.5 59.5 61.0 61.3 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 8 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 22 23 26 26 27 29 29 28 26 22 22 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -18. -21. -23. -24. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -5. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/01/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/01/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/01/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)