* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922011 10/01/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 17 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 11 11 12 19 20 28 26 28 31 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 -1 2 1 3 3 7 5 2 0 SHEAR DIR 247 247 253 266 288 287 266 262 255 258 258 252 258 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 136 135 136 136 136 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 49 50 53 54 52 54 55 55 57 59 61 62 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -10 -9 -8 -11 -10 -15 -7 0 5 7 9 13 200 MB DIV 27 28 20 14 23 34 11 19 13 0 -15 18 57 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 2 0 1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 901 880 867 862 866 898 962 1071 1163 1246 1365 1498 1636 LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.6 11.9 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.1 14.5 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 154.2 155.0 155.8 156.6 157.4 159.2 160.9 163.0 165.3 167.5 169.7 171.6 173.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 12 12 26 27 35 41 35 37 39 48 46 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -20. -23. -24. -25. -26. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -18. -20. -23. -26. -27. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922011 INVEST 10/01/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922011 INVEST 10/01/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##