* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 10/01/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 104 105 104 98 79 60 40 27 20 24 23 V (KT) LAND 105 104 104 105 104 98 79 60 40 27 20 23 28 V (KT) LGE mod 105 104 102 100 98 87 65 51 43 39 39 36 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 4 5 14 15 36 49 46 26 25 31 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 4 7 4 2 13 10 10 0 4 9 14 N/A SHEAR DIR 244 238 201 195 227 189 226 245 276 259 245 242 N/A SST (C) 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.0 27.5 23.7 14.4 9.9 12.9 12.6 13.2 13.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 136 141 141 135 102 74 72 75 73 71 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 124 130 130 124 93 72 71 73 70 69 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 57 64 64 62 60 55 43 39 51 56 50 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 28 29 29 30 30 32 29 26 20 16 15 24 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -11 7 18 11 29 -43 -46 39 48 72 116 N/A 200 MB DIV 47 86 123 110 75 124 88 37 9 19 46 39 N/A 700-850 TADV 25 31 24 8 38 54 32 -21 9 -27 -30 -77 N/A LAND (KM) 990 1168 1343 1244 1025 585 217 367 1271 976 376 -59 N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.0 28.7 30.3 32.5 34.7 39.8 45.0 48.7 51.2 53.4 54.5 54.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.1 63.0 62.9 62.4 61.9 60.4 56.6 48.0 35.7 24.8 15.7 7.8 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 19 22 24 28 31 38 38 31 25 23 N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 26 18 18 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -27. -41. -52. -61. -66. -68. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -4. -5. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. -1. -3. -8. -12. -13. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. -1. -7. -26. -45. -65. -78. -85. -81. -82. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 26( 46) 26( 60) 21( 68) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)