* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/01/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 43 40 38 38 38 39 42 44 45 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 44 43 40 38 38 38 39 42 44 45 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 43 42 40 36 32 31 31 32 35 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 42 43 40 42 42 33 28 24 22 17 24 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 3 2 -2 -3 -4 -4 -6 -7 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 321 319 329 344 343 345 356 356 347 352 323 274 234 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 135 137 136 138 138 138 137 134 136 140 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 118 120 122 121 121 121 121 119 114 116 120 119 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.8 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 42 43 39 42 46 46 48 47 47 46 48 46 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 14 15 14 13 13 14 14 14 15 14 16 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -58 -70 -77 -85 -87 -83 -77 -58 -56 -31 8 58 200 MB DIV 8 10 3 1 10 16 2 27 30 8 20 53 35 700-850 TADV 23 20 18 15 10 4 -11 -19 -10 1 0 1 -15 LAND (KM) 2067 2001 1939 1854 1773 1622 1490 1350 1225 1198 1263 1410 1372 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.7 25.1 25.5 25.8 26.3 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.6 28.5 30.0 32.0 LONG(DEG W) 46.8 47.6 48.4 49.5 50.5 52.5 54.3 56.4 58.5 59.7 60.1 60.1 59.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 9 7 5 6 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 25 26 27 26 28 24 25 18 18 16 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. -21. -23. -22. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -3. -1. 0. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/01/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/01/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/01/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)