* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922011 10/01/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 11 8 8 15 23 24 19 25 22 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 3 2 3 7 6 4 3 1 SHEAR DIR 236 244 265 283 290 252 250 257 254 245 240 255 230 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 135 135 136 136 136 135 135 136 135 135 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 47 49 52 53 53 52 56 56 60 61 59 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -13 -11 -11 -9 -16 -8 -8 2 6 16 10 14 200 MB DIV 32 35 19 20 48 32 24 4 18 0 10 39 66 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 885 867 857 850 852 892 960 1087 1157 1273 1398 1540 1684 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.4 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.2 13.6 14.1 14.4 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 154.5 155.3 156.1 156.9 157.7 159.5 161.3 163.5 165.7 168.0 170.1 172.0 173.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 25 13 15 26 28 34 38 34 37 41 48 47 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -18. -21. -23. -25. -26. -26. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922011 INVEST 10/01/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922011 INVEST 10/01/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##