* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 10/01/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 105 105 104 93 74 54 37 27 30 38 38 V (KT) LAND 105 104 105 105 104 93 74 54 37 27 30 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 105 103 101 100 96 77 58 49 43 41 42 40 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 7 7 11 10 23 38 52 31 23 24 24 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 3 5 9 9 5 1 4 6 6 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 239 211 198 236 226 210 240 269 262 235 192 209 N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.1 28.1 27.6 26.4 19.1 12.1 14.8 13.1 13.3 13.2 14.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 141 142 137 123 82 73 77 75 73 70 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 129 132 127 113 77 71 74 73 70 68 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 62 65 61 62 58 52 47 52 61 55 55 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 26 27 27 27 30 29 27 24 18 14 23 36 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -3 8 0 14 -47 -60 12 67 33 35 -10 N/A 200 MB DIV 57 92 89 82 109 90 57 1 21 41 70 56 N/A 700-850 TADV 33 18 3 25 35 25 -13 29 -10 -4 -33 -141 N/A LAND (KM) 1155 1358 1296 1040 797 383 94 814 1313 556 57 1 N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 30.3 32.1 34.7 37.2 42.4 46.5 49.5 51.9 53.9 54.7 54.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.9 62.5 62.1 61.6 61.0 58.4 51.9 41.9 29.5 18.5 9.9 3.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 22 26 27 29 34 39 38 30 22 19 N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 17 19 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -5. -16. -30. -44. -54. -63. -68. -70. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -9. -12. -5. 6. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 0. -1. -12. -31. -51. -68. -78. -75. -67. -67. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 26( 61) 14( 66) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 1( 6) 0( 6) 0( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)