* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922011 10/01/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 10 17 21 21 22 22 20 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -2 -1 0 3 3 4 6 2 1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 240 260 275 287 283 238 238 237 247 257 244 255 250 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 135 135 135 136 136 136 136 136 136 135 136 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 56 55 57 59 58 61 61 61 59 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -13 -10 -6 -9 -11 -5 2 8 11 12 17 17 200 MB DIV 29 21 31 41 48 27 28 37 26 14 33 53 49 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 -3 0 0 0 -2 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 866 853 848 854 870 935 1041 1141 1238 1356 1488 1626 1790 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.7 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 155.5 156.3 157.1 158.0 158.8 160.6 162.6 164.7 167.0 169.1 171.1 172.9 174.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 21 26 29 32 41 36 36 39 45 49 45 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -20. -22. -24. -25. -26. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 3. 3. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -16. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922011 INVEST 10/01/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922011 INVEST 10/01/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##