* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 10/01/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 105 103 102 87 67 45 31 20 18 16 17 V (KT) LAND 105 105 105 103 102 87 67 45 31 20 18 22 23 V (KT) LGE mod 105 104 101 98 91 69 55 46 41 39 41 40 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 15 12 18 47 47 24 17 22 36 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 0 5 13 4 3 1 8 14 24 N/A SHEAR DIR 250 234 249 241 242 240 258 279 274 278 264 292 N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.0 27.6 26.6 24.4 15.8 10.4 14.1 14.0 14.0 13.8 14.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 136 125 106 76 72 74 73 72 71 72 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 125 114 97 73 70 71 71 70 68 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 63 59 58 59 50 38 38 51 54 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 23 26 26 23 27 24 22 16 11 7 9 13 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 1 -1 3 -6 -84 -54 56 46 -2 -9 10 N/A 200 MB DIV 76 102 112 107 99 52 15 8 -1 35 22 19 N/A 700-850 TADV 20 -1 13 48 47 21 21 3 -34 -64 -100 -68 N/A LAND (KM) 1347 1263 1060 838 645 289 434 1133 1239 601 69 3 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.4 32.5 34.5 37.0 39.4 44.2 48.1 50.0 50.6 51.5 52.0 52.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.8 62.1 61.4 60.6 59.8 55.6 47.0 37.5 28.0 19.0 11.3 5.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 21 23 25 26 32 34 31 30 26 22 20 N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 10 7 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 17 CX,CY: 0/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -7. -20. -34. -47. -58. -66. -70. -72. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -5. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 0. -2. -7. -12. -16. -15. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -3. -18. -38. -60. -74. -85. -87. -89. -88. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 10/01/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 24( 59) 10( 64) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)