* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/01/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 53 51 49 46 43 41 39 38 41 44 50 V (KT) LAND 55 55 53 51 49 46 43 41 39 38 41 44 50 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 57 55 53 48 44 41 40 41 43 49 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 40 50 47 43 37 33 28 26 18 4 12 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 -5 -1 1 1 -1 0 -2 -3 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 331 341 344 349 352 355 351 344 352 352 291 242 218 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 136 136 136 138 138 136 133 132 137 141 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 121 120 120 122 123 120 115 114 118 121 123 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.9 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -54.9 -54.7 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 -55.0 -55.3 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 5 700-500 MB RH 38 41 44 42 43 45 42 46 48 48 43 39 36 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 14 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -68 -77 -80 -86 -83 -80 -66 -55 -55 -43 -13 28 200 MB DIV 12 -1 -24 -8 14 -15 3 1 5 -5 18 22 23 700-850 TADV 13 12 16 5 0 3 -11 -8 -2 -2 -2 -7 -27 LAND (KM) 1916 1843 1773 1696 1622 1452 1254 1100 1031 1089 1241 1427 1554 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.3 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.0 25.7 25.7 26.2 27.2 28.6 29.9 31.0 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 49.5 50.4 51.4 52.3 54.3 56.5 58.6 60.4 61.1 60.8 59.5 57.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 7 6 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 26 27 27 28 30 27 29 22 18 21 18 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -24. -21. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -17. -14. -11. -5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/01/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/01/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/01/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)