* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922011 10/01/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 20 20 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 20 20 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 11 9 8 12 19 21 19 17 19 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 0 3 1 2 4 4 6 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 266 283 310 309 284 260 254 243 260 244 240 241 252 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 137 137 137 137 137 137 136 137 137 137 136 138 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.3 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 54 52 55 55 57 57 59 59 61 59 61 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -12 -12 -15 -19 -14 -14 -3 3 11 13 19 16 200 MB DIV 25 48 62 61 41 16 -1 14 2 1 19 69 52 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 1 1 0 0 -3 LAND (KM) 903 904 914 931 957 1030 1149 1236 1345 1481 1629 1777 1955 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.7 13.9 13.7 LONG(DEG W) 156.3 157.2 158.0 158.9 159.8 161.7 163.9 166.1 168.3 170.5 172.5 174.3 176.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 29 36 38 39 38 40 43 49 49 53 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922011 INVEST 10/01/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 10.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922011 INVEST 10/01/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##