* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922011 10/02/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 22 20 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 9 8 7 16 18 19 14 18 17 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 4 4 2 3 4 5 0 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 284 310 317 288 263 258 254 258 244 249 248 239 245 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 137 137 137 138 138 137 137 137 138 139 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 55 54 54 56 55 58 58 60 58 62 61 65 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -13 -14 -15 -18 -18 -11 -9 0 9 23 28 31 31 200 MB DIV 58 57 48 29 31 16 13 13 15 43 81 64 55 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -1 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 934 933 942 962 991 1090 1211 1304 1434 1574 1720 1888 2085 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.5 13.8 13.9 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 157.0 157.9 158.8 159.7 160.6 162.7 164.9 167.2 169.5 171.7 173.6 175.5 177.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 26 37 38 38 40 41 42 48 52 49 58 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -25. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922011 INVEST 10/02/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922011 INVEST 10/02/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##