* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 10/02/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 111 100 85 57 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 117 111 100 85 57 29 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 115 100 82 69 54 45 39 35 30 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 12 14 24 31 43 49 44 42 39 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 12 7 12 11 7 18 17 20 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 202 196 199 215 242 265 251 228 224 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.4 26.2 23.2 18.8 14.8 10.0 13.3 12.9 13.4 13.6 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 121 98 81 74 72 74 73 73 73 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 110 90 76 71 70 72 71 71 70 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -50.5 -49.5 -49.8 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 57 60 49 41 36 37 49 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 29 26 28 29 27 24 18 19 28 34 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 26 14 -40 -50 -35 84 116 122 41 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 107 140 157 108 69 16 14 22 67 22 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 26 24 36 -3 23 3 -54 -96 -54 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 988 746 545 354 249 264 1030 1230 493 -59 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.0 37.6 40.1 42.5 44.8 48.1 50.9 52.5 53.6 54.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.1 61.4 60.7 59.0 57.2 49.3 39.1 28.4 17.5 7.4 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 26 26 27 29 34 35 34 32 30 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 24 CX,CY: 2/ 24 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -8. -16. -25. -43. -58. -73. -85. -94. -96. -96. -94. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -8. -11. -18. -22. -19. -16. -11. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -25. -29. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -9. -2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -20. -35. -63. -91.-105.-109.-113.-116.-117.-115. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 10/02/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 116.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -25.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 10/02/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 10/02/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 29( 52) 10( 57) 0( 57) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)