* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922011 10/02/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 6 8 17 23 18 19 18 18 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 3 2 2 2 5 3 1 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 303 307 297 256 250 238 260 258 231 250 241 249 274 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 137 137 137 137 136 136 137 136 137 139 140 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 58 58 58 59 57 58 59 61 63 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -12 -14 -13 -7 -5 5 19 23 21 24 39 40 200 MB DIV 61 41 35 29 19 11 21 20 28 56 73 35 4 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -1 -3 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 922 924 937 962 996 1109 1200 1314 1458 1605 1759 1966 2189 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.8 13.9 13.5 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 157.5 158.5 159.4 160.4 161.3 163.5 165.8 168.1 170.3 172.3 174.1 176.1 178.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 34 37 38 38 36 39 42 48 50 52 57 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -13. -16. -19. -22. -23. -24. -25. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -9. -11. -11. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922011 INVEST 10/02/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922011 INVEST 10/02/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##