* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 10/02/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 90 80 68 42 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 98 90 80 68 42 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 93 79 67 58 47 40 36 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 27 25 34 52 51 42 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 14 13 6 10 8 7 8 18 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 182 206 233 239 265 263 228 208 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 23.8 19.3 15.8 12.8 13.2 12.8 12.4 13.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 102 82 75 73 74 74 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 93 77 72 71 72 72 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -50.9 -49.7 -49.2 -48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 61 59 47 45 46 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 28 27 28 26 24 20 14 23 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 -2 -46 -66 -73 16 113 142 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 124 152 77 31 24 -1 17 21 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 16 2 17 -16 11 -27 -135 -99 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 761 593 381 295 55 653 1394 847 318 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.4 39.8 42.2 44.2 46.2 49.2 51.6 54.4 57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.4 60.2 58.9 56.1 53.3 44.1 34.0 23.0 11.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 26 27 28 31 34 35 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 27 CX,CY: 7/ 26 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -9. -16. -24. -37. -49. -61. -70. -76. -78. -78. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -5. -7. -10. -17. -20. -17. -15. -12. -11. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -18. -23. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -5. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -25. -37. -63. -87. -92. -98.-102.-106.-108.-105. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 10/02/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -20.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 10/02/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 10/02/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 12( 36) 3( 38) 0( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)