* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/02/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 44 41 40 38 37 38 40 43 44 46 42 V (KT) LAND 50 46 44 41 40 38 37 38 40 43 44 46 42 V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 42 40 38 36 35 36 39 42 46 47 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 44 39 31 30 29 22 22 16 18 24 38 54 65 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 3 5 1 0 -6 -5 -6 -3 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 348 353 358 353 347 353 331 346 297 253 234 226 223 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 138 138 138 134 132 130 135 140 146 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 122 122 122 122 117 113 111 115 121 130 127 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.5 -53.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 9 10 8 7 6 4 2 700-500 MB RH 45 44 44 44 42 43 45 47 46 44 41 39 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 15 15 15 14 13 14 16 17 17 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -91 -96 -87 -89 -87 -61 -48 -37 -30 -15 4 0 43 200 MB DIV -10 1 20 -5 0 0 1 -13 11 6 28 44 55 700-850 TADV 8 -2 -12 0 -3 -7 -10 -2 2 1 -1 -18 -51 LAND (KM) 1730 1638 1548 1454 1362 1194 1070 1046 1085 1208 1366 1512 1418 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.6 27.3 28.4 29.6 31.3 33.5 LONG(DEG W) 51.2 52.3 53.3 54.4 55.4 57.6 59.6 60.8 61.4 61.1 60.2 57.9 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 5 5 6 10 15 18 HEAT CONTENT 26 27 28 29 29 28 26 18 19 21 21 17 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -13. -17. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -12. -10. -7. -6. -4. -8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/02/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/02/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/02/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)