* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 10/02/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 79 69 59 49 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 79 69 59 49 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 75 64 56 50 42 37 34 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 26 27 34 43 49 35 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 15 7 12 11 10 6 15 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 192 218 227 239 252 269 247 228 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.8 18.8 14.9 12.3 9.9 12.8 12.6 13.1 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 96 81 74 73 72 75 74 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 88 76 71 71 70 73 72 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -50.5 -50.1 -50.6 -49.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 65 59 51 43 46 47 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 27 28 25 23 21 14 11 20 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 -58 -61 -72 -44 69 88 105 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 151 67 35 32 23 12 42 36 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 21 13 6 2 -38 -27 -94 -130 -76 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 533 374 246 47 312 1116 1032 315 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.3 42.5 44.7 46.5 48.3 51.1 53.2 55.0 55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.4 58.4 56.4 52.6 48.7 37.9 25.6 14.5 6.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 27 26 29 32 35 38 36 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 29 CX,CY: 8/ 28 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -4. -10. -16. -22. -32. -41. -49. -56. -60. -62. -62. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -13. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -10. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. -7. -3. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -10. -14. -7. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -31. -41. -62. -76. -81. -88. -92. -95. -96. -94. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 10/02/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -14.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 10/02/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 10/02/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 3( 15) 0( 15) 0( 15) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)