* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/02/11 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 36 37 38 40 43 45 48 50 53 49 V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 36 37 38 40 43 45 48 50 53 49 V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 37 35 33 32 33 34 36 39 41 41 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 39 30 29 32 30 23 20 15 15 28 38 42 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 3 -4 -2 -1 -5 -3 -1 0 6 8 0 SHEAR DIR 360 10 3 352 350 344 332 323 265 255 236 246 231 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 138 136 133 131 134 138 141 145 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 122 122 122 121 116 112 114 117 122 127 124 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -54.9 -54.8 -54.5 -54.6 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -53.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 3 2 700-500 MB RH 44 46 43 42 43 44 46 46 43 36 47 45 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 12 13 15 15 15 16 15 16 17 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR -100 -92 -98 -97 -82 -68 -50 -47 -31 -26 -10 18 47 200 MB DIV -11 13 -2 -11 26 -18 13 1 21 18 32 50 64 700-850 TADV -2 -10 -5 -14 -12 -11 -7 -1 1 0 -15 -15 -54 LAND (KM) 1639 1546 1456 1365 1276 1118 1029 1062 1176 1315 1447 1530 1449 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.3 27.2 28.4 29.5 30.1 31.4 33.2 LONG(DEG W) 52.3 53.4 54.4 55.5 56.5 58.7 60.6 61.7 61.9 61.2 59.5 57.2 54.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 7 10 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 26 28 29 28 27 30 21 19 24 22 18 16 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 3. 5. 8. 4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/02/11 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/02/11 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/02/2011 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)