* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL172011 10/03/11 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 41 41 41 42 44 48 50 51 50 V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 41 41 41 42 44 48 50 51 50 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 41 40 39 38 39 40 44 49 53 55 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 34 33 29 27 27 19 9 11 15 27 43 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -5 0 0 -1 -3 -4 0 -1 8 1 2 SHEAR DIR 360 2 358 358 359 351 358 321 290 246 236 238 242 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 138 137 134 131 129 131 135 139 142 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 124 124 122 118 113 111 112 115 119 123 126 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.2 -55.8 -55.6 -55.6 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 44 42 41 41 38 42 45 40 37 43 47 50 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 10 8 7 6 6 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -92 -99 -97 -89 -79 -70 -62 -63 -53 -27 -18 -6 31 200 MB DIV 2 -18 -29 -2 -2 -1 -3 -9 0 5 35 7 32 700-850 TADV -12 -7 -15 -14 -13 -12 -2 0 -1 -1 -7 -7 -17 LAND (KM) 1548 1443 1340 1232 1126 972 916 963 1082 1216 1350 1537 1593 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.2 25.5 26.3 27.4 28.4 29.2 30.2 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.3 54.4 55.5 56.7 57.8 59.9 61.3 61.9 61.7 60.9 59.7 57.9 55.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 8 5 5 5 6 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 30 29 27 27 29 25 19 19 20 19 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -8. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 3. 5. 6. 5. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/03/11 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 28.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/03/11 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172011 PHILIPPE 10/03/2011 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)