* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 10/03/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 54 45 36 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 54 45 36 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 55 48 43 39 32 27 24 21 27 29 DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 33 47 51 49 48 42 37 12 34 57 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 10 4 4 4 15 23 21 1 12 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 249 255 266 267 241 231 213 230 324 325 N/A N/A SST (C) 13.9 11.3 10.0 13.7 11.6 11.9 12.7 12.7 13.3 14.4 14.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 74 72 72 75 73 73 70 67 67 68 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 72 71 71 73 72 71 68 64 63 64 64 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -52.4 -51.5 -50.8 -49.0 -48.0 -46.5 -46.2 -51.6 -54.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 53 49 42 47 55 60 60 64 57 51 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 25 23 22 20 15 10 12 18 25 22 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -54 -61 -38 20 75 124 123 185 244 123 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 8 26 0 -10 42 41 25 41 -48 -82 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 23 6 -62 -27 -45 -130 -101 -105 0 41 -17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 162 53 377 784 1185 1030 518 195 -26 0 12 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 45.5 47.3 49.1 50.6 52.1 55.5 57.5 58.1 57.2 54.9 52.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 56.5 52.2 47.9 42.6 37.2 25.8 15.5 9.2 5.5 4.7 4.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 34 36 37 38 34 23 13 10 11 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 37 CX,CY: 30/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -14. -20. -25. -29. -32. -34. -35. -36. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -9. -9. -13. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -11. -11. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 13. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -8. -5. -2. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -12. -8. -2. -4. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 9. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -29. -38. -51. -61. -71. -72. -77. -89. -93. -94. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 10/03/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 10/03/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 10/03/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)