* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922011 10/03/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 32 26 20 18 19 19 19 17 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 32 26 20 18 19 19 19 17 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 31 30 26 23 22 23 27 33 39 44 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 43 48 51 55 56 47 26 18 16 8 17 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 1 -2 -4 1 2 -1 -3 3 1 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 39 27 22 15 16 14 28 34 54 317 341 349 348 SST (C) 22.6 22.9 23.3 23.9 24.5 26.0 26.9 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 91 93 95 99 104 116 126 127 121 120 119 117 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 81 83 87 91 103 113 113 108 107 105 101 99 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -52.5 -52.0 -51.6 -52.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.6 -56.1 -56.5 -57.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 40 46 47 49 50 46 43 39 43 52 59 54 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 14 15 14 13 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 68 75 74 66 62 103 90 80 96 69 44 15 -1 200 MB DIV 0 -33 -41 -20 -22 -27 -24 1 5 49 19 7 -26 700-850 TADV -2 -10 -2 -12 -6 -3 -1 4 1 3 4 -4 6 LAND (KM) 1491 1638 1787 1941 1996 1994 2135 2364 2177 1894 1854 1969 2098 LAT (DEG N) 39.4 39.0 38.5 37.7 36.8 34.4 31.3 28.4 26.6 27.4 29.6 31.8 33.6 LONG(DEG W) 26.5 28.2 29.8 31.4 33.0 35.9 38.3 39.4 37.8 34.7 33.4 33.8 35.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 12 11 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 10 8 4 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 9. 13. 16. 17. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 3. 6. 9. 11. 9. 1. -8. -14. -16. -17. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -4. -10. -12. -11. -11. -11. -13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922011 INVEST 10/03/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: -1.1/ -2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -23.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922011 INVEST 10/03/2011 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED