* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP922011 10/03/11 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 20 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 21 20 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 20 18 22 20 19 28 35 32 35 37 37 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 3 3 8 7 7 4 5 4 1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 226 244 249 253 247 249 254 260 256 276 271 275 271 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 137 137 137 137 137 136 135 135 136 137 139 142 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 60 62 62 62 62 64 63 59 59 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -8 -6 0 7 12 18 8 10 13 0 -3 -3 200 MB DIV 38 26 22 33 45 22 51 77 95 65 62 12 49 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 0 0 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -3 -2 -6 LAND (KM) 947 1006 1078 1137 1170 1289 1413 1546 1683 1833 2000 2187 2420 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.5 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.2 13.9 13.6 13.2 LONG(DEG W) 160.8 162.0 163.2 164.4 165.6 168.1 170.2 172.0 173.6 175.1 176.7 178.5 180.7 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 11 9 8 8 7 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 34 35 37 41 48 48 48 56 56 57 64 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -6. -10. -13. -16. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -22. -23. -24. -25. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -14. -18. -23. -27. -28. -31. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP922011 INVEST 10/03/11 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP922011 INVEST 10/03/11 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##