* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL162011 10/03/11 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 41 34 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 41 34 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 41 36 32 29 24 21 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 40 49 49 38 42 49 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 12 7 6 2 16 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 251 260 267 256 244 216 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 11.6 9.7 12.9 12.8 12.3 12.5 13.0 13.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 72 72 74 73 73 72 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 70 70 71 71 71 70 68 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -51.9 -51.6 -50.6 -49.2 -48.7 -48.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 49 43 42 39 39 47 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 24 23 22 17 14 11 15 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -29 13 61 93 103 120 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 28 8 -9 37 12 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 3 -20 0 -63 -70 -106 -72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 6 279 645 1026 1400 938 337 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 47.3 48.6 49.8 50.7 51.5 53.7 55.1 55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.1 49.2 44.3 39.1 33.9 24.3 14.8 8.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 32 35 34 34 32 30 24 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 29 CX,CY: 15/ 25 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -18. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. -3. -9. -13. -17. -20. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. -10. -6. -3. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -35. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -8. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 7. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -23. -28. -37. -43. -51. -61. -66. -69. -70. -69. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162011 OPHELIA 10/03/11 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 42.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162011 OPHELIA 10/03/11 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162011 OPHELIA 10/03/2011 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)